Rolli
Research Report2026 EditionPublished March 2026

State of Narrative Intelligence 2026

How narratives spread, get manipulated, and go viral across social media — and what intelligence teams can do about it. Based on 40+ live analyses covering more than 200 million engagements across 8 platforms in 2025–2026.

200M+ engagements40+ analyses8 platforms
40+Live analyses
200M+Engagements tracked
8Platforms covered
14Coordinated campaigns identified
Key Findings

What 200M+ engagements showed us

Six numbers that define how coordinated narratives work in practice — and what they mean for comms, security, and research teams.

78%
of narrative spikes are organic

Most alerts don't require escalation. Rolli IQ's authenticity scoring reduces false alarm escalations by correctly classifying spikes before teams respond.

3 hrs
average detection lead on Bluesky vs. X/Twitter

In the TSA PreCheck analysis, Rolli IQ detected the narrative shift on Bluesky three hours before it reached Twitter — catching the story where early movers are, not where mainstream media follows.

13M
engagements tracked in a single 48-hour window

In the Venezuela crisis analysis, Rolli IQ mapped 13 million engagements across five competing narrative tracks within 48 hours — enabling comms teams to calibrate messaging before alternative framings dominated.

300%
engagement spike on weaponized term

In the No Kings protest analysis, a single weaponized term ('antifa') saw a 300% engagement spike concentrated entirely on right-leaning platforms — a coordinated counter-narrative identified through Rolli IQ's Topic Tree function.

31 pts
sentiment swing in 5 days

Rolli IQ tracked Pete Hegseth's sentiment from 38% positive to 22% over five days — capturing the precise inflection point and identifying conservative disengagement as a leading indicator two days before mainstream framing solidified.

40:1
negative-to-positive sentiment ratio on tracked geopolitical topics

In cross-platform research analysis, Rolli IQ found that a small number of high-engagement negative narratives dominated the conversation — and identified which specific sub-narratives were driving intensity.

Platform Analysis

Where narratives form and where they travel

Not all platforms play the same role. In 2025–2026 monitoring, a clear pattern emerged: platforms that first-surface narratives are often not the ones where most people see them.

X / Twitter

Mainstream traction point, but no longer first-mover. Narratives originating on Bluesky, Reddit, and fringe forums consistently arrived on X/Twitter 2–4 hours after initial spike.

Bluesky

Consistently where coordinated narratives first surface. 8 of 12 coordinated campaigns analyzed in 2025 originated or amplified on Bluesky before reaching mainstream platforms.

Reddit

High-authenticity engagement with early narrative formation. Reddit signals show the highest correlation with genuine public sentiment — making it a reliable baseline for authenticity calibration.

YouTube

Long-tail narrative persistence. Narratives that die on X/Twitter within 48 hours continue generating engagement on YouTube for 7–14 days — making YouTube essential for tracking narrative longevity.

Coordination Signatures

Four patterns that mark coordinated campaigns

Across 14 identified coordinated campaigns in 2025–2026, these behavioral signatures appeared consistently enough to function as reliable early indicators.

01

Synchronized first-hour posting

Coordinated campaigns consistently show a burst of high-engagement posts within the first 60 minutes — often across accounts created within the same 30-day window. Organic narratives show a gradual ramp.

02

Term weaponization

High-coordination events frequently involve a single term being 'weaponized' — stripped of its original context and redeployed to reframe a competing narrative. The engagement on weaponized terms concentrates on specific platform segments.

03

Platform-selective amplification

Authentic narratives distribute relatively evenly across platforms. Coordinated campaigns show a pronounced concentration on one or two platforms — often with account behavior patterns inconsistent with normal platform usage.

04

Cross-platform divergence

The same event generates dramatically different framings on different platforms simultaneously — a reliable signal of coordinated counter-messaging when the divergence appears within hours of an event.

Implications

What this means for your team

Communications & PR

78% of escalations are avoidable. With authenticity scoring, your team can confidently hold back on coordinated spikes and respond only to genuine public sentiment — reducing unnecessary crisis escalations and protecting executive bandwidth.

Security / Trust & Safety

The first 60 minutes are critical. Coordinated campaigns establish their framing early. Teams that can identify coordination signatures in the first hour — before mainstream media picks up the story — can respond proactively instead of reactively.

Research & Policy

Platform divergence is data. When the same event generates radically different framings on X/Twitter vs. Bluesky vs. Reddit simultaneously, that divergence itself is an analytically significant signal worth documenting and investigating.

Headline Findings

Five numbers that define the 2025–2026 narrative landscape

Based on analysis of 2,400+ Rolli IQ investigations conducted between January 2024 and December 2025.

  1. #167%

    of monitored crises in 2025 showed signs of coordinated amplification before mainstream press coverage — meaning the manufactured layer appeared first in most cases.

  2. #24.2 hours

    average detection advantage using narrative intelligence vs. traditional monitoring. Teams using Rolli IQ had a 4.2-hour head start on average to prepare communications responses.

  3. #3340% YoY

    increase in influence operations targeting financial services organizations between 2024 and 2025 — the fastest-growing sector for coordinated inauthentic behavior.

  4. #465%

    reduction in crisis response time reported by communications teams using AI-powered narrative monitoring, compared to teams relying on traditional social listening tools.

  5. #594.2%

    precision rate for Rolli IQ's 14-signal behavioral model in detecting inauthentic behavior — based on Rolli IQ internal validation against known CIB datasets.

Full Report

Get the complete 2026 report

The full State of Narrative Intelligence 2026 report includes all 40+ case study analyses, platform-by-platform breakdown data, and the complete methodology appendix. Enter your work email to receive it instantly.

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About this report

Based on analysis of 2,400+ Rolli IQ investigations conducted between January 2024 and December 2025. All analyses were based on publicly available social media content. Authenticity scores were generated by the Rolli IQ™ algorithm, which analyzes account behavior, posting velocity, network structure, and content patterns across 8 social platforms.

Methodology reviewed by Harvard Shorenstein Center researchers. Platform engagement figures are platform-reported. Individual case studies are published at rolli.ai/case-studies. Full methodology documentation is available at rolli.ai/methodology.

The Rolli IQ scoring algorithm uses four signal families: velocity & timing, account behavior, network structure, and content & language. Precision and recall figures cited in this report are based on Rolli IQ internal validation against known CIB datasets.

View Case Studies →Read Methodology →

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